If the global shipping throat is blocked, the global economy will suffer an annual loss of $14 billion

Global trade routes are becoming increasingly fragile, as important narrow shipping routes are facing severe threats from human factors such as conflicts, piracy, terrorism, as well as natural disasters such as extreme weather.
A new study shows that disruptions at these critical nodes will affect approximately $192 billion worth of maritime trade annually and result in approximately $14 billion in economic losses, including costs such as delays, diversion, insurance, and increased shipping costs.
The study was published in the journal Nature Communications, titled ‘Systemic Effects of Disruption of Maritime Traffic Pathways’, and was jointly conducted by Dr. Jasper Verschuur, Dr. Johannes Lumma, and Professor Jim Hall from the Oxford Sustainable Infrastructure Systems Project (OPSIS) at the Institute for Environmental Change (ECI) at the University of Oxford, with support from the Oxford Martin Systems Resilience Initiative and the Gallagher Research Centre.
Researchers analyzed 24 important maritime routes, including the Suez Canal, the Strait of Mandeb, and the Strait of Malacca, which are major arteries for global transportation of goods and energy. Research has found that interruptions in these key areas will result in direct economic losses of approximately $10.7 billion annually, equivalent to 0.04% of global trade volume. Among them, countries highly dependent on vulnerable shipping routes such as Egypt, Yemen, Iraq, and Panama have been hit the hardest.
In addition, the increase in shipping costs will result in a global loss of approximately 3.4 billion US dollars annually. Once trade routes are blocked or ships are forced to divert, freight rates will increase significantly. This cost shock will affect all countries, not limited to economies directly connected to obstructed routes, ultimately driving up transportation costs and transmitting them to consumer prices.
Dr. Jasper Verschuur, the lead author of the research report, pointed out that “the lifeline of the global economy depends on a few maritime routes. Any narrow waterway interruption will quickly affect all continents. Understanding these risks is crucial for enhancing the resilience of the global supply chain
The study found that there is a correlation between human threats such as armed conflicts, piracy, and natural disasters such as hurricanes. Armed conflicts and terrorism often coexist in key areas such as the Mandeb Strait, Bosphorus Strait, and Lombok Strait. At the same time, about 40% of tropical cyclones will affect multiple meridians simultaneously. Moreover, pirate activities in one area seem to increase the risk of attacks in other regions. The interweaving of these risks means that multiple critical nodes may simultaneously fail, severely restricting the ability of global ships to reschedule and trade flows.
Dr. Johannes Lumma explained, “The interweaving of risks reveals the tight coupling of the maritime system. A single event in one region of the world may trigger or exacerbate risks in other regions. Analyzing these associations helps us predict composite shocks and prepare for them
These findings highlight the systemic fragility of the global trade network. The interruption of critical nodes may trigger a chain reaction, from factory shutdowns caused by component shortages to price increases felt by global consumers.
Researchers believe that to mitigate such risks, a layered resilience strategy should be adopted, tailored to the types of routes that countries or businesses rely on. This may include establishing emergency reserves, diversifying supply chains, investing in security measures, and developing insurance products that cover rare but severe disruptions.
Professor Jim Hall, co-author and leader of OPSIS, said, “Although maritime corridors have a limited geographical scope, they have a profound impact on the operation of the global economy. Ensuring their smoothness and safety is a top priority for the world. By identifying the most vulnerable links in the system, we can help governments and businesses enhance their ability to withstand future shocks
Against the backdrop of current geopolitical turmoil and climate change, this study emphasizes that the stability of international trade depends on the security of strategic shipping routes. Researchers point out that international cooperation and collaborative risk management will be necessary conditions for preventing and mitigating future disruptions.