2017 China’s exports will face greater downward pressure and new uncertainties

Experienced these years of international competition in the market, at present, China’s export enterprises to participate in international competition in the market capacity has been improved.

According to customs statistics, from the dollar-denominated view, in 2016 China’s exports fell 7.7% year on year, exports fell by 2.8% over the same period in 2015; yuan-denominated in 2016, China’s annual export fell 2.0% , Exports in the same period in 2015 decreased by 1.8%, which shows that China’s export situation throughout the year 2016 continued downward trend in 2015.

China’s export situation in 2017, both need to analyze the long-term factors affecting exports, but also analyze the short-term factors affecting exports. A comprehensive impact on China’s exports of long-term and short-term factors, in general, 2017 China’s exports will continue to face greater downward pressure.

The long-term factors that affect exports include: First, China’s traditional dependence on the cost of low-cost competitive advantage is weakening, the new export competitive advantage has not yet fully formed. For a long period of reform and opening up, China relies on the advantages of low labor costs and other factors, exports of labor-intensive products, the development of processing trade, support China’s rapid export growth for many years. In recent years, China’s labor costs and other factors rising, both weakening the competitiveness of China’s manufacturing exports, but also makes part of the labor-intensive manufacturing industry to lower-cost developing countries, the double effect of increasing our export pressure. While the technology, brand and other characteristics of the new export competitive advantage has not yet been formed.

Second, the adjustment of the world’s economic structure has also increased the intensity of China’s export competition. Before the international financial crisis, in the world economy and trade pattern, the industrial division of labor between developing countries and developed countries was complementary, and this complementary division of labor structure for many years, to support rapid growth in world trade for many years. Since the international financial crisis, developed countries to promote economic recovery, have implemented remanufacturing, re-industrialization strategy, in its local development of manufacturing, and some labor-intensive manufacturing to lower cost of developing countries, making China’s manufacturing Export is facing competition from developing countries and facing competition from developed countries, which will inevitably exacerbate the intensity of China’s export competition, the formation of greater pressure on China’s export growth.

From the short-term situation in 2017, this year, China’s exports are facing increased uncertainty, mainly for US exports exist in the uncertainty. From the Trump campaign and inaugural speech, the United States is more likely to implement trade protectionism. The United States is China’s important export destination, the United States to implement trade protectionism, manufacturing trade friction will have a negative impact on China’s exports.

In addition, according to the National Research Center in October 2016 distributed in 30 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities 706 foreign trade enterprises, the survey results show that exports in 2017, “slightly improved” “significant improvement” of the respondents accounted for 21%. 3%, that the annual export base of the surveyed enterprises accounted for 50.2%, is expected in 2017 annual exports “slightly decreased” “deterioration” of the respondents accounted for 28.5% of the proportion. This also shows that China’s exports this year are still facing greater pressure.

Of course, although China’s exports face greater downward pressure, but there are some positive factors, such as: In recent years, China’s export enterprises have been facing greater downward pressure, forcing constantly enhance innovation, And continuously improve product competitiveness. Through these years of international market competition, at present, China’s export enterprises to participate in international competition in the market capacity has been improved.

The State Council Development Research Center of the Ministry of foreign economic research associate researcher Zhao Fujun