Be wary of shipping safety problems in the reverse direction of the US dollar

2017 for the international shipping industry, the biggest event than the Federal Reserve announced by the end of 2016 interest rate policy. The Fed’s current rate hike means that since 2008, for many years after the end of the quantitative easing monetary policy, the dollar in the global direction of the flow began to materially reversed. With the future Fed interest rate increase in the fermentation, the international shipping market security situation will become increasingly serious, which is the future of the international maritime sector must be highly concerned about the issue.

Long-term low tariffs so that shipowners had to significantly reduce the maintenance of the ship’s budget. From the current international shipping industry, the actual situation, whether it is the age of the ship or less than 5 years of the actual situation of the new ship is not ideal. In contrast to regular cargo ships, the maintenance of unsound cargo ships is even more serious; in the context of future dollar reverse circulation, the shipyard’s day will not be better. The current liquidity situation is likely to occur under the tightening of the shipyard even worse. The difficulties in the future operations of the ship repairing business will be very easy to cause the quality of the ship repair. Judging from the actual situation of international shipping, the difficulties in the operation of ship repair enterprises have begun to be transmitted to the quality of shipbuilding. Compared with the shipyard, the days of future shipyards will be even more difficult. Especially in those who have a low interest rate in the previous period and holding a dollar debt, the rise in debt costs caused by the Fed’s rate hike is likely to directly threaten the survival of future businesses. The current plight of the shipbuilding industry is particularly evident in the quality of the new ship delivered in recent years. The shrinkage of the crew income in the reverse dollar will also be a key factor in the future impact of the shipping industry.

Baotuan heating seems to be the only choice for the shipping industry in the context of the post-financial crisis. The international shipping industry has entered the peak of mergers and acquisitions since the end of 2015. In the maritime industry mergers and acquisitions under the tide, the global shipping alliance pattern also began to earth-shaking changes, the international shipping market is showing an oligopoly situation. However, the large-scale mergers brought about by the “sequelae” is the future development of the shipping industry can not be ignored in the process. The fact that most of the maritime security incidents at the end of 2016 occurred on mergers and mergers and acquisitions have reflected the chaos in the safety management of the post-merger era from one aspect. “Post-merger era” changes in the shipping ecology will also be a certain extent harm to the future shipping industry security.

The future of the international shipping industry in the short term in the dollar against the circulation of the pain is inevitable. Downturn in the market under the shipping safety accident for the owner is undoubtedly worse. From the current pattern of global political and economic development, with the reversal of the US dollar circulation, the global production model is also being questioned around the world. On the next round of economic globalization has come to an end, and the recent British off Europe, Trump against the United States and the withdrawal of TPP are the trend of globalization is reversing the specific performance. The future of non-dollar countries as long as the control of the domestic capital market, it is possible to resolve the dollar reverse circulation may bring the problem.

The collapse of the dollar and gold caused by the collapse of the Braden forest system has made the order of the international monetary and financial markets more diversified. Although the future supply of offshore dollars will be significantly reduced in a certain period of time, but the international trade market, other types of money supply is still very adequate. In contrast to the Fed’s current rate hike, the major trading countries in Europe and Asia are still implementing quantitative easing and low interest rate monetary policies in the past in order to maintain domestic debt balance and ensure that their goods are on the international market The competitiveness of the. If these countries can both in international trade to maintain a surplus and effective control of domestic capital flight, the appreciation of the dollar in the short term is good news. To maintain the competitiveness of their exports in the international market and to ensure the stability of the domestic capital market has become a crack the dollar reverse circulation problem of the two gold keys.

At present the international trade market, “to the dollar” is the future shipping industry needs to focus on one of the problems. However, no matter how the future shipping market changes, safety and environmental protection level of the international shipping industry is the development process can not be ignored. For the troubled shipping industry, the relative costs of the accident, the usual spend on the maintenance of the fleet or can not be reduced.