Container ship big orders fly, hi or worry?

Has attracted the attention of the industry in France to fly ship 22000TEU container ship billions of large single finally spent Chinese shipping enterprises! This order is the world’s largest container ship market silence for 22 months since the first batch of orders, is also the largest amount of new ship orders this year, this record will be loaded into the development of container ships in the history of development.

On September 19, China Shipbuilding Group and Fidelity France signed a 6 + 3 22 000 TEU container ship construction contract in France with a total value of nearly RMB 10 billion (US $ 1.4 billion).

1. Chinese shipyard wins orders by strength

It is reported that these containers are expected to use LNG power plant design, the cost of each about 1.5-1.6 billion US dollars. The order is based on the shipbuilding group of the seventh and eighth Institute of fully independent intellectual property rights of the design ship, from the Hudong China Shipbuilding and Shanghai Waigaoqiao shipbuilding construction.

The contracted large container ship load reached nearly 22 million tons, carrying capacity 22000TEU, the world’s largest carrying capacity; meet the world’s most stringent emission limits of emission standards to meet the ship energy efficiency design index (EEDI) the third stage standard. The type and structure of the ship is more optimized, the layout and system of large-capacity refrigerated containers are further improved, and the cost of single-box operation is greatly reduced. The ship in the comprehensive power index, are the box indicators, fuel consumption indicators, cargo indicators and other aspects of comprehensive evaluation in the forefront of the best indicators to ensure the final bid.

At the beginning of 2016, under the lead organization of China Shipbuilding Group’s trading company, the 708 Research Institute cooperated with France’s Flying Ship to explore 22,000 cases of project, with strong technical reserves and related research and development results, and actively completed the relevant contract documents and Basic design and other technical preparations, the main performance indicators and volume indicators have been fully recognized by the fly, the new boat project has laid a solid foundation. Subsequently, in April this year, Flying officially launched the 22,000-box container ship bid, requiring the tender side to provide conventional heavy oil, LNG Ready and other technical programs. 708 as the technical side of the ship group, and Hudong China and Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding two shipyards and shipbuilding group trading company in close cooperation, within a week to submit, including the main performance indicators, the main layout, system options and the corresponding Complete technical solution for calculation and analysis. In the end, in the total five rounds of the bidding process, the ship group with excellent technical ability, strong performance and other comprehensive performance, has defeated Japan and South Korea today Metallurgical shipbuilding, Hanjin Heavy Industries, Daewoo Shipbuilding Ocean, Samsung Heavy Industries and Hyundai Heavy Industries and other five competitors, with the success of the Group signed a contract.

It is understood that the order is the largest ship since the ship made the largest container ship, the new ship will be delivered by the end of 2019 to 2020, will become the world’s largest container ship.

2. The market opens a new round of order tide

(MSC) 11 22,000 boxes of ultra-large container ship orders Obviously will soon let the Korean shipbuilding industry, the shipbuilding industry, the shipbuilding industry, the shipbuilding industry, the shipbuilding industry, the shipbuilding industry, the shipbuilding industry, the shipbuilding industry, the shipbuilding industry, Heal “pain”. However, many people in the founding of China and South Korea when the shipbuilding battlefield may have overlooked an important thing, just a week, two consecutive large single may be another sign of the recovery of the ship city, and indicates that the global container ship The market or will usher in another wave of order tide.

According to the trade wind report, the Mediterranean Shipping (MSC) has been identified in the Korean shipping companies ordered a single 11 22000TEU large container ship, the total value of nearly 1.5 billion US dollars. Which Samsung Heavy Industries received up to 6, Daewoo shipbuilding divided another five.

These new vessels shipped by the Mediterranean do not use LNG power, but will choose to install the exhaust scrubber to meet the sulfur emission restrictions that will come into force in 2020. The cost of each new ship is about $ 145 million, and the cost of installing an exhaust scrubber is about $ 5 million.

At the same time, an industry source said that the Mediterranean shipping also considered some of its existing 14000TEU container ship lengthened, converted to 17000TEU container ship, and contact shipyard. The container ships, which will be lengthened, are the first generation of 14,000 TEU container ships operated by the Mediterranean Shipping and were built by Daewoo Shipbuilding between 2009 and 2013 for the operation between Asia and the Mediterranean. Mediterranean shipping is interested in the shipyard’s new package of shipbuilding and conversion work. It is understood that the Mediterranean shipping has been exposed to the Korean shipyard, but did not contact the Chinese shipyard.

For Mediterranean shipping, it is clear that orders for so many large container ships are made in the current market.

As global container traffic will usher in the fastest growth in six years, shipping analyst Drewry has recently re-evaluated their forecasts for this year and 2018. “All the available container traffic data this year shows that the current growth is much faster than previously forecast, and container volume has soared since the end of 2016. With the surge in momentum, we were forced to A considerable reevaluation of the forecasts for this year and the year afterwards. ”

Deutsche Bank earlier this year predicted that in the higher tariffs and rapid growth in freight demand driven by the container shipping industry this year will be about 1.5 billion in operating profit. In view of the first half of this year, rising tariffs and demand growth, the German road shipping consulting in July to raise the forecast to 5 billion US dollars.

And in the market quickly pick up at the same time, the new ship prices are still at a low, for the owner is clearly the bargain-hunting price of a good time to make a new ship. According to the current price of these two batches of 22000TEU container ships around $ 140 million per $ 1.60 billion, the average single-box cost of only 6364-7273 dollars. Maersk Line in 2012 customized the world’s first 18,000 boxes of the price of up to 180 million US dollars, single-box cost of up to 10,000 US dollars. And in the sea in October 2015 made six 21,000 boxes of single-box cost of $ 6667, much lower than the previous Maersk 3E-class ship’s single-box cost. These orders are clearly tempting if the LNG-Ready shipments are even lower than the price of 21,000 vessels in China Shipping.

3. Assemble the ship to bring shock waves

To keep the trend of the stock market continued upward, liner companies must prevent the two acts, one is the price war, the second is to build the ship’s “arms race.”

Dafei ship action once again proved that the pursuit of large-scale economic effect of the ship is the industry giant born genes, this gene is deeply rooted, alone industry “self-discipline” is unable to suppress this impulse. From the carrier and the independent owner in the collection industry investment in the relative proportion of change can be seen in the comprehensive risk of the fleet industry (2012 and 2016), the previous year there have been carriers of shipbuilding investment accounted for an overwhelming proportion of the characteristics The There may be some causal relationship between the carrier’s large-scale investment and industry-wide losses.

In recent years, the problem of excess capacity has been plagued by the carrier, resulting in the majority of enterprises at the edge of the loss. What is the reason for the arrival of the ship at this time to build a ship?

To answer this question, we must first remember that the carrier’s investment decisions, the priority is necessarily the interests of the company, and the potential impact on the industry only in the second, or do not consider. For Flying ships, COSCO Shipping will replace the third place in the top carrier after the acquisition of Orient Overseas, and the largest ship size among the seven largest global carriers is the smallest of.

In addition, although we do not know the specific terms of the new ship orders, but it is certain that long-term suffering from “order hunger” of the major shipyards, will provide a very attractive discount. In recent months, due to rising tariffs to improve the cash flow, but also to the fleet of large capital investment confidence.

In a sense, the new orders for the fleet of vessels are to catch up with their peers. Dafei currently the largest active ship is 6 (of which 3 owned) 17772TEU to 17859TEU type ship, the largest order ship is three 20600 TEU type boat. The three ships were scheduled for delivery in 2017 and have been postponed until 2018. In contrast, Maersk Line has a total of 31 ships of more than 18,000 TEU (both in service and under construction) and are owned by their own ships. If you add 9 new ship orders for this time, the order capacity for Flying ships will double to 423000 TEU, although it will not be able to recapture the third position, but will help narrow the distance from the direct opponent.

According to a report by Deutschelu, from the whole collection industry, 18,000 TEU above the ship in all orders in the capacity accounted for the largest, up to 39%, followed by 14000-18000TEU ship orders, accounting for 21%. It is expected that this year and next year will be the peak of the ship factory, this year’s factory more than 10,000TEU large ship capacity of about 760,000 TEU, next year is about 1.23 million TEU.

From the market point of view, the order of the ship, equivalent to the already crowded waters in the re-put capacity, will lead to fluctuations in the transport industry.

Recently, the global container fleet capacity has exceeded 20 million TEU. Even if you do not consider the arrival of these new ship orders, existing orders will also be increased by 2020, nearly 3 million TEU new capacity. Forty percent of these new ships are ships of more than 18,000 TEU, and their configuration areas are limited to Asia-Europe routes, and the result will inevitably lead to a steep increase in capacity on this route. The pressure to replace the fleet will intensify.

As for the ships of these vessels will have much effect on the supply and demand equation, it will depend on the ship’s industrial environment. Assuming that they were shipped after 2019, most of the ships on existing orders had been put into operation, coupled with the increase in transport demand and the increase in shipbreaking, the negative impact of these new vessels might not be too great. However, they may have greater psychological impact on other competitors in the industry. Like Evergreen Marine, ONE, Herbert, etc., is to carefully maintain their own balance sheet, or quickly follow up, join the “arms race” it?

De Lu Li believes that the order of the ship on the market shows that even in the current debt trend, some shipping companies will still gain market share as the principle of their business development. How many shipping companies have recognized and implemented this principle will directly determine whether the future collection industry can remain profitable, or whether it will repeat the past in order to seize the market share caused by excess capacity situation, making the market to fall again. All this is still unknown.

Gambling market recovery, bargain-hunting orders, set the industry has taken the lead in the two giants, the global container ship market may usher in a wave of orders, and for the shipbuilding industry in terms of anyway is a good thing.