How does the outbreak affect geometry? Some institutions predict that global GDP will decrease by 0.8% in the first quarter

The new crown pneumonia epidemic has spread further worldwide. At present, nearly 3,000 people have been diagnosed in South Korea, and nearly 1,000 have been diagnosed in Japan. The number of cases in Italy has rapidly increased, and the first cases have been reported in many European countries. The epidemic has spread to more than 10 countries in the Middle East, of which the Vice President of Iran confirmed the infection.

Well-known consulting firm IHS Markit predicts that if China ’s current prevention and control measures continue until the end of February and will be gradually phased out in March, the impact on the global economy will be concentrated in the first half of 2020, and real global GDP in the first quarter will be Reduced by 0.8%, will be reduced by 0.5% in the second quarter. In this case, the epidemic and related measures will reduce global real GDP by 0.4% for the whole year of 2020.

IMF and other major international agencies have lowered their global economic expectations

The outbreak of pneumonia in China has had an impact on the Chinese economy. The spread of the epidemic globally may cause other countries to experience similar experiences in China. On the other hand, China’s pivotal role in the global economy may affect countries around the world by affecting the global industrial chain and capital chain.

Major international agencies have lowered their global economic expectations. On January 20, the World Economic Outlook report updated by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted that the global economic growth in 2020 is expected to be 3.3%. On February 22, IMF President Kristalina Georgieva said during the G20 fiscal conference that under the assumption that the Chinese economy can return to normal levels in the second quarter, global economic growth this year will be reduced by 0.1 percentage point to 3.2% from the January forecast. . However, it is worth noting that when the IMF made this judgment, the number of new cases outside China basically did not exceed 300, and after February 28, the number of new cases abroad began to exceed 1,000. With the global epidemic escalating, the IMF may re-evaluate the economic growth .

Moody Chief Economist Mark? Zandi said that if the new coronavirus pneumonia develops into a pandemic, it may cause the United States and the global economy to fall into recession in the first half of 2020, and the probability of developing a pandemic has increased from 20% to 40%.

Bank of America economists warned customers on Thursday that the global economy will grow by 2.8% this year, the lowest level since 2009.

Institution: Compared with the SARS epidemic in 2003, the impact of this epidemic is more serious

On February 6, the well-known consulting agency IHS Markit released a report that compared with the 2003 SARS epidemic, the new crown pneumonia epidemic will have a greater negative impact on the global economy. During the SARS period, China was the sixth largest economy in the world, accounting for only 4.2% of world GDP; China is now the second largest economy in the world, accounting for 16.3% of world GDP. Therefore, the impact of China’s economic slowdown is not ripples, but global ripples (not ripples but waves).

Well-known consulting firm IHS Markit predicts that if China ’s current prevention and control measures continue until the end of February and will be gradually phased out in March, the impact on the global economy will be concentrated in the first half of 2020, and real global GDP in the first quarter will be Reduced by 0.8%, will be reduced by 0.5% in the second quarter. In this case, the epidemic and related measures will reduce global real GDP by 0.4% for the whole year of 2020.

However, IHS Markit further predicts that in 2021, as the release of suppressed demand penetrates the entire economy, the lifting of restrictions will increase global real GDP by 0.4%.