The Asian Development Bank, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley have raised their expectations for China’s economic growth

BEIJING, April 12 (Xinhua) — Recently, several foreign institutions have raised their expectations for China’s economic growth in 2024.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) released its “2024 Asian Development Outlook (April Edition)” report on April 11th, which raised China’s expected GDP growth rate for this year from 4.5% to 4.8%, due to the recovery of household consumption.
The Asian Development Bank believes that, driven by fiscal expansion, China’s public infrastructure spending is expected to be strong, providing support for investment. Meanwhile, with policy support, investment in high-tech manufacturing and other manufacturing industries should maintain steady growth.
According to foreign media reports, on April 10th, Goldman Sachs economists released a report stating that the annualized growth rate of the Chinese economy in the first quarter may reach 7.5%, higher than the previously expected 5.6%. Goldman Sachs expects China’s economic growth rate to be 5% in 2024, consistent with the Chinese government’s target, compared to its previous expectation of 4.8%.
Goldman Sachs reported that recent macroeconomic data in China has performed steadily. Chinese manufacturing data shows that the Chinese economy bottomed out at the end of 2023 and is on the rise. Consistent with the strong growth of China’s manufacturing industry, Goldman Sachs’ inventory tracking shows a substantial increase in inventory in the first quarter.
Morgan Stanley has also raised its forecast for China’s economic growth in 2024 from 4.2% to 4.8%, citing the strong performance of China’s export volume, which has led to better than expected export growth. A report released by Morgan Stanley on April 10th stated that the Chinese government’s increasing emphasis on supply chain upgrades is expected to drive growth in manufacturing capital expenditures.
Meanwhile, the 2024 ASEAN, China, Japan, and South Korea Regional Economic Outlook report released by the ASEAN, China, Japan, and South Korea Macroeconomic Research Office on April 8 shows that China’s economic growth is expected to increase from 5.2% in 2023 to 5.3% in 2024.
Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics of China released data on manufacturing PMI and CPI for March.
In March, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the manufacturing industry was 50.8%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points from the previous month. The non manufacturing business activity index was 53.0%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month. The comprehensive PMI output index was 52.7%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from the previous month. In March, the national CPI experienced a seasonal decline compared to the previous month, with a slight decrease in year-on-year growth. The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.6% year-on-year, maintaining a moderate increase. (End)